Club点评：在北京对话主办的“金砖国家与多极世界2024对话会”上，伊朗德黑兰大学教授穆罕默德·马兰迪指出，美西方对伊朗实行数十年制裁，包括限制其发声渠道。他认为，俄罗斯已开始面临类似处境，中国则需要“未雨绸缪”。

　　由于西方控制全球主要社交媒体，全球南方国家之间的相知相交，往往需要借助西方媒体，这一局面亟需改变。

　　马兰迪强调，全球南方国家必须重视话语权，解决信息来源或获取信息的途径问题，建立集体性的相互沟通的平台，以抵御来自西方的制裁与孤立。

　　8月24日至25日，由中国公共外交协会指导、北京对话主办的“金砖国家与多极世界2024对话会”在北京举行。来自15个国家和南方中心等国际组织的近40位专家学者，就金砖国家构建货币体系、参与多极世界构建、增强经济韧性与合作等议题，进行了深入研讨。

　　以下为马兰迪发言中英文：

　　穆罕默德·马兰迪在“金砖国家与多极世界2024对话会”上发言北京对话

　　我们今天讨论的议题包括机构改革，包括联合国安理会、国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及世界贸易组织等机构的改革。然而，我认为在当前形势下，这些改革无法实现。在我们如今所处的世界中，这只会是白日做梦——至少在可预见的未来是如此。

　　实际上，我认为以目前的形势来看，情况只会逐步恶化。因此，我们必须思考替代方案，以及替代性的机构。我们所谈论的“多极化”，实际上是去殖民化的一种形式乃至进一步演进。因此，它的重要性丝毫不亚于今天我们讨论到的有关金融交易、美元武器化以及商品市场等问题。同样重要的，还有媒体、社交媒体、目前由美国控制的社交媒体平台、互联网、人工智能，无论是ChatGPT、OpenAI，还是未来几个月或几年内出现的其他新兴技术。

　　正如吴冰冰教授所提到的，全球南方以及像“金砖+”这样的新兴机构的大学之间，几乎没有互动。即便在伊朗，我们的互动主要还是与西方学术界和西方大学进行的。讽刺的是，经过四十多年的制裁、战争、死亡与破坏，情况依旧如此。

　　毫无疑问地说，这就如同美元金融机构的“武器化”、以及美国垄断商品市场——这真是令人惊讶的局面。

　　我认为，不仅是金砖国家，还有上合组织、“一带一路”倡议——所有这些组织和倡议相关的人士都必须共同思考这些问题。除非我们找到应对我刚才提到的这些问题的方式，否则它们将会进一步被武器化，事实上，它们已经被武器化了。所有伊朗的媒体，无论是阿拉伯语的、英语的或是波斯语的，都受到了制裁。就连波斯语媒体都同样会被制裁，因此伊朗人在向世界传递信息时正面临着巨大困难。

　　我们现在看到这一情况也发生在俄罗斯身上。显然，随着时间的推移，同样的情况也会发生在中国身上。他们会试图限制中国，试图在经济上孤立中国，在软实力领域也会如此。这正是他们对我们所做的。

　　然而，伊朗的现状并非是在一夜之间发生的，而是经历了数十年才发展到今天这个地步。但随着整个西方或美国自身感受到的压力逐渐增大，我认为他们将采用更加不理性、更加武断的方式边缘化对手。

　　我认为，他们将会分散资源，以同时应对不同的国家。即使是那些不会直接受到制裁的国家，也将因为与全球南方国家的互动受到限制而间接受到制裁。因此，即便是那些认为自己不会受到影响的国家，最终也难以幸免。

　　因此，如果我们不解决信息来源或获取信息的途径问题，我们将继续生活在一个以欧洲和西方为中心的世界中。坦率地说，我对中国的了解主要来自西方。有时候，我可能会通过微信联系在中国的朋友和同事，询问他们实际情况是什么？大家在讨论什么？

　　我也可以毫无疑问地说，今天在座的各位，你们大多数关于伊朗的信息，并非直接来自伊朗。这几乎是不可能的。甚至有时我自己关于伊朗的信息也不是来自于伊朗。我早晨一醒来，就会有人从世界某个角落打电话告诉发生了什么事情，然后我不得不去查证，结果发现要么是谣言，要么真相已经被扭曲。

　　2018年，脸书删除了652个和伊朗有关的页面、群组和账号，推特也删除了284个账号。

　　因此，除非我们尽快解决这个问题，否则这将甚至影响到经济。

　　举个例子，我的学生或同事以及我自己的言论是受限的，因为我已经被从所有Meta旗下的社交平台（如Facebook和Instagram）上移除。我的学生中有很多人也是如此，其他学生则会来找我说，我们看到了您的推文，但我不敢点赞，因为我担心明天如果我想参加某个会议，或者想在其他地方继续深造，他们会审查我所有的社交媒体记录，然后拒绝我的签证申请。

　　这种自我审查就像我们在经济领域看到的情况一样。当他们对伊朗实施制裁时，伊朗甚至连进口药品都面临困难。虽然明面上药品并未被制裁，但美国和欧洲施加的制裁措施却导致药品无法进入；这是有意为之的，而非偶然的错误。

　　再比如，当许多年轻的伊朗人失去他们的账户时，他们不得不更换电话号码以获得新账户。他们会不断重复这一过程。自我审查会自动造成更大的问题。审查一定程度上已经是个问题，而这种自我审查则使问题更加严重。这些情况就像制裁一样。制裁本身就造成了问题，但制裁还会创造次级问题，也就是我们自己在自我保护的过程中，实施了比美方要求更多的制裁制度。

　　因此，我认为，这一问题就算不比制裁更重要，至少也同样重要。种族灭绝正在加沙上演，委内瑞拉的局势动荡不安，叙利亚与利比亚等地战火持续，以及其它各种形式的西方压迫和镇压的例子，无论是经济战、战争还是肮脏战争，这些都交织在一起。然而，当委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的推特账户被封时，这不是美国政府所为，而是某个亿万富翁做的，因为他想参与对抗全球南方的战争。

　　我们必须迅速推动变革。我们如果无所作为，最终会导致我们面临更糟的局面。今天马可提到，这是一项政治决策。问题其实比大多数人想象的要复杂得多，危险性也更大，因为我们正在滑向低谷。如果我们在到达低谷时仍没有应对之策，这将对每个人都造成重大危机。

　　这不仅仅是俄罗斯或伊朗的问题。叙利亚媒体、也门媒体、黎巴嫩媒体、以及大部分伊拉克的媒体都是如此。拉丁美洲的数十万甚至数百万用户也面临着自己的媒体问题。伊朗确实有自己的社交媒体平台，但这些平台仅仅是小小的“孤岛”。如果我们没有一种集体性的、能够让不同国家和不同人群相互沟通的平台，我们将继续困在孤岛上。这样不仅会容易使我们在社会和国家层面被孤立，甚至更容易遭到经济上的孤立。

　　因此，我认为社交媒体平台、奖学金项目、学术合作——所有这些都必须在金砖国家的背景下进行讨论。留给我们的时间不多了。这不仅仅是因为世界发展到当下的态势，也与玛丽亚（注：委内瑞拉驻华公使）刚才所提到的相关：我们究竟能从金砖国家中获得什么？

　　在我年轻的时候，有不结盟运动。虽然与当年比较既不完全公平，也不完全恰当，但如今不结盟运动确实已经变得名存实亡。许多人甚至未曾听说过这个运动，因为它已经不再具有我年轻时那样的影响力。

　　我们生活在不同的时代和不同的世界，正如之前所说，当下有新的科技和新的前行之路。因此，如果金砖国家不能尽快成功创造出激励机制，那么我认为金砖国家这整个概念恐将沦为一年一度的领导人俱乐部，仅此而已。

　　我认为，这本身会是一种激励——告诉领导人并提醒他们，如果你们不采取实际行动，最终结果将会像你们所举的例子一样，你们费尽心思，到头来努力推进的200页内容缩减到20页，最终得不到任何你们想要的成果。然后，某些西方领导人会吹嘘自己在改革国际机构方面的工作，这种无所作为的处境则持续下去。

　　（翻译：毛琪）

　　以下为英文原文：

　　We have the subtopics of reform, reforming institutions like the UN Security Council, the IMF, the World Bank, and the WTO. But I think under current circumstances that is not possible at all. This is just a dream that will not be fulfilled in the world that we live in, at least for the foreseeable future.

　　In fact, I think that as things stand, the situation will only get worse, progressively. And therefore, we have to think about alternatives, and about alternative institutions. Multi-polarity that we’re speaking of is a form or an extension of decolonization, and so just as important as the issue of financial transactions, and the weaponization of the dollar, and the commodity markets that we’ve been hearing today; stands the issue of media, social media, the current social media platforms controlled by the United States, the Internet, Artificial Intelligence, whether it’s ChatGPT, OpenAI, or anything else that comes up in the coming months and years.

　　And also what Professor Wu alluded to, the fact that universities in the Global South and among the emerging institutions like BRICS+, they have very little interaction with one another. And our interaction, even in Iran, our interaction mainly is with Western academia and Western universities. Ironically, after 40 some years of sanctions and war and death and destruction, that still is the case. And there is no doubt that just as the dollar financial institutions have been weaponized, and just as they have a monopoly over the commodity markets, which is extraordinary in itself.

　　And I think not only BRICS, but the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Belt and Road Initiative – all of these have to be thinking about these issues together, those people involved in these. Unless we have the means to deal with these issues that I named, they will be further weaponized, and they are already weaponized. All Iranian media is sanctioned, everything, whether Arabic, English, or Persian. Persian media is sanctioned, so Iranians have difficulty in giving information to the world beyond. And we see this happen now with Russian. Obviously, progressively the same will happen with China. They will try to limit China, try to isolate China economically, and in the realms of soft power, we will see the same. That’s what they’ve done to us. And it didn’t happen overnight with regard to Iran. It took decades to reach where we are today. But as the West, the collective West or the United States began to feel more pressure, I think that they are going to become more irrational, more swift in the way in which they try to marginalize adversaries.

　　I think they are going to spread their resources across the board to simultaneously deal with different countries, even countries that are not going to be directly sanctioned will be sanctioned, because they won’t be limited in their interaction with countries across the Global South. So even those countries that think that they are not impacted, they are going to be impacted.

　　So if we don’t deal with the source or the means of accessing information, we are going to continue to live in the Eurocentric and Western-centric world. My information about China - very bluntly - comes from the West. And sometimes I may contact friends and colleagues here in China on WeChat and ask them, what is the reality behind? What is being said? Your information, I think, everyone in this room, I can say without a doubt that your information on Iran does not come from Iran for the most part. It’s impossible. My own information about Iran sometimes doesn’t come from Iran. I wake up in the morning, and someone calls me from somewhere across the world and says what happened to so-on-sos and what so-on-sos… And I have to go and look it up, and then I find out either it’s not true or it’s something different or it’s twisted.

　　And so, unless we deal with this, this is going to even impact the economy. Because, for example, my own students or my colleagues… I’m censored, because I’ve been removed from all Meta platforms, like Facebook and Instagram. My students, many have; others come to me and say, so-on-so, we saw, for example, your tweet. But I can’t like it. Because I’m afraid tomorrow if I want to go to a conference or I want to continue my education somewhere, they’re going to check all of my social media and they’ll refuse me the visa.

　　This self-censorship is just like we see in the economy. When they sanction Iran, Iran has problems even importing medicine. Because officially, it’s not sanctioned, but the Americans and the Europeans carry out the sanctions in a way to make sure that medicine can’t come in either. That’s an objective. It’s not a mistake. When they, for example, when many young Iranians lose their accounts, they have to change their phone number to get another account. So they’re going to keep doing this over and over again, and automatically that self-censorship creates a bigger problem. The censorship is a problem at one layer, the self-censorship makes it a larger problem. These are just like the sanctions. The sanctions create a problem at one layer, but the sanctions also create a second layer where we ourselves implement the sanctions regime more than what is officially dictated to us for self-preservation.

　　So I think that this is, if not more important than the sanctions itself, it’s as important. We have the genocide in Gaza, we have what’s going on in Venezuela, we have multiple wars, we had Syria, we have Libya, we have examples of all forms of Western oppression and suppression, whether economic warfare, war, and Dirty War, all of these combined. But when Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, he had his Twitter account knocked out by not the government of the United States, but just some billionaire who wanted to take his part in the war against the Global South.

　　Then I think that, this means we have to be very swift in bringing about change. Our complacency will ultimately result in a worsening situation for all of us. In the morning, it was said that this was a political decision. The issue is much more problematic than most people think, and it’s much more dangerous than most people think, because I think we are going very rapidly down a hill, and if we don’t have a solution for when we get to the bottom of the hill, it is going to be a major crisis for everyone.

　　It’s not just Russian or Iranian. It’s Syrian media. It’s Yemeni media, it’s Lebanese media, it’s much of Iraqi media and many hundreds of thousands, if not millions of users, who have been removed in Latin America, they have their own problems with media.

　　Iran has its own social media platforms, but these are just small islands. If we don’t have something that is collective, that different countries and different people can communicate, then we are going to remain these separate islands. And it is more easy, not only to isolate us at the social and national level, but they will be able to more easily isolate us economically through these powerful means.

　　I think social media platforms, scholarship programs, academic cooperation – all these have to be seen within the context of BRICS and BRICS really doesn’t have much time. It’s not just because of the situation that the world is falling into, but also what Maria touched upon earlier: What do we get from BRICS? Once upon a time when I was still very young, we had the Non-Aligned Movement. It’s not a fair comparison. It’s not an excellent comparison. But now today, the Non-Aligned Movement really isn’t very effective. Its just a name. Many people haven’t even heard of it, because it no longer has the impact that it did when I was young. We live in a different time, we live in a different world. As was said earlier, there are those new technologies and new ways forward. So if BRICS doesn’t succeed soon to create an incentive, then I think the whole notion of BRICS would end up just as a club of leaders who sit together once a year. And that’s basically it.

　　I think that is an incentive in itself to tell leaders and to inform leaders that if you don’t take real steps, then ultimately, it’s going to be like the examples that you gave, where you push and push, and you have 200 pages of turned into 20 pages. And at the end of the day, you don’t get anything that you want. And then some Western leader will say we did such great work to reform our international institutions, and the complacency will go on.

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